भारतीय भाषाओंको मरणासन्न बनाता एक और डिजिटाइजेशन प्लान

By Raoul Pal
March 2017

Raoul Pal is the man who correctly called the crash in oil prices in 2014...

...As well as the strong Dollar...

...And the fall in emerging markets...

...And the fall in junk bonds...

He's the man who wrote ‘The End Game’ which is the most widely read financial article in the history of the internet

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I’m going to blow your mind with this following article. My mind is still reeling from my discovery and from writing this piece.

Let me enlighten you...

Companies that create massively outsized technological breakthroughs tend to capture the investing population’s attention and thus their share prices trade at huge multiples, as future growth and future revenues are extrapolated into the future.

From time to time, entire countries re-model their economies and shift their growth trajectory. The most recent example was the liberalisation of China’s economy and massive spending on infrastructure, which together created an incredibly powerful force for growth over the last two decades.

But it is very rare indeed that a country develops an outsized technological infrastructure breakthrough that leaves the rest of the world far behind.

But exactly this has just happened in India... and no one noticed.

India has, without question, made the largest technological breakthrough of any nation in living memory.

Its technological advancement has even left Silicon Valley standing. India has built the world’s first national digital infrastructure, leaping at least two generations of financial technologies and has built something as important as the railroad was to the UK or the interstate highways were to the US.

India is now the most attractive major investment opportunity in the world.

It’s all about something called Aadhaar and a breathtakingly ambitious plan with flawless execution.

What just blows my mind is how few people have even noticed it. To be honest, writing the article last month was the first time I learned about any of the developments. I think this is the biggest emerging market macro story in the world.

Phase 1 – The Aadhaar Act

India, pre-2009, had a massive problem for a developing economy: nearly half of its people did not have any form of identification. If you were born outside of a hospital or without any government services, which is common in India, you don’t get a birth certificate. Without a birth certificate, you can’t get the basic infrastructure of modern life: a bank account, driving license, insurance or a loan. You operate outside the official sector and the opportunities available to others are not available to you. It almost guarantees a perpetuation of poverty and it also guarantees a low tax take for India, thus it holds Indian growth back too.

Normally, a country such as India would solve this problem by making a large push to register more births or send bureaucrats into villages to issues official papers (and sadly accept bribes in return). It would have been costly, inefficient and messy. It probably would have only partially worked.

But in 2009, India did something that no one else in the world at the time had done before; they launched a project called Aadhaar which was a technological solution to the problem, creating a biometric database based on a 12-digit digital identity, authenticated by finger prints and retina scans.

Aadhaar became the largest and most successful IT project ever undertaken in the world and, as of 2016, 1.1 billion people (95% of the population) now has a digital proof of identity. To understand the scale of what India has achieved with Aadhaar you have to understand that India accounts for 17.2% of the entire world’s population!

But this biometric database was just the first phase...

Phase 2 – Banking Adoption

Once huge swathes of the population began to register on the official system, the next phase was to get them into the banking system. The Government allowed the creation of eleven Payment Banks, which can hold money but don’t do any lending. To motivate people to open accounts, it offered free life insurance with them and linked bank accounts to social welfare benefits. Within three years more than 270 million bank accounts were opened and $10bn in deposits flooded in.

People who registered under the Aadhaar Act could open a bank account just with their Aadhaar number.

Phase 3 – Building Out a Mobile Infrastructure

The Aadhaar card holds another important benefit – people can use it to instantly open a mobile phone account. I covered this in detail last month but the key takeaway is that mobile phone penetration exploded after Aadhaar and went from 40% of the population to 79% within a few years...

Phase 4- Smart Phones

The next phase in the mobile phone story will be the rapid rise in smart phones, which will revolutionise everything. Currently only 28% of the population has a smart phone but growth rates are close to 70% per year.

In July 2016, the Unique Identification Authority of India (UIDAI), which administers Aadhaar, called a meeting with executives from Google, Microsoft, Samsung and Indian smartphone maker Micromax amongst others, to talk about developing Aadhaar compliant devices.

Qualcomm is working closely with government authorities to get more Aadhaar-enabled devices onto the market and working with customers – including the biggest Android manufacturers – to integrate required features, such as secure cameras and iris authentication partners.

Tim Cook, CEO of Apple, recently singled out India as a top priority for Apple.

Microsoft has also just launched a lite version of Skype designed to work on an unstable 2G connection and is integrated with the Aadhaar database, so video calling can be used for authenticated calls.

This rise in smart, Aadhaar compliant mobile phone penetration set the stage for the really clever stuff...

But that is not all. In December 30th 2016, Indian launched BHIM (Bharat Interface for Money) which is a digital payments platform using UPI (Unified Payments Interface). This is another giant leap that allows non-UPI linked bank accounts into the payments system. Now payments can be made from UPI accounts to non-UPI accounts and can use QR codes for instant payments and also allows users to check bank balances.

While the world is digesting all of this, assuming that it is going to lead to an explosion in mobile phone eWallets (which is happening already), the next step is materializing. This is where the really big breakthrough lies...

Payments can now be made without using mobile phones, just using fingerprints and an Aadhaar number.

Fucking hell. That is the biggest change to any financial system in history.

What is even more remarkable is that this system works on a 2G network so it reaches even the most remote parts of India!! It will revolutionise the agricultural economy, which employs 60% of the workforce and contributes 17% of GDP. Farmers will now have access to bank accounts and credit, along with crop insurance.

But again, that is not all... India has gone one step further...

Phase 5 – India Stack – A Digital Life

In 2016, India introduced another innovation called India Stack. This is a series of secured and connected systems that allows people to store and share personal data such as addresses, bank statements, medical records, employment records and tax filings and it enables the digital signing of documents. This is all accessed, and can be shared, via Aadhaar biometric authentication.

Essentially, it is a secure Dropbox for your entire official life and creates what is known as eKYC: Electronic Know Your Customer.   

Using India Stack APIs, all that is required is a fingerprint or retina scan to open a bank account, mobile phone account, brokerage account, buy a mutual fund or share medical records at any hospital or clinic in India. It also creates the opportunity instant loans and brings insurance to the masses, particularly life insurance. All of this data can also in turn be stored on India Stack to give, for example, proof of utility bill payment or life insurance coverage.

What is India Stack exactly?

India Stack is the framework that will make the new digital economy work seamlessly.

It’s a set of APIs that allows governments, businesses, startups and developers to utilise a unique digital infrastructure to solve India’s hard problems towards presence-less, paperless and cashless service delivery.

Presence-less: Retina scan and finger prints will be used to participate in any service from anywhere in the country. Cashless: A single interface to all the country’s bank accounts and wallets. Paperless: Digital records are available in the cloud, eliminating the need for massive amount of paper collection and storage. Consent layer: Give secured access on demand to documents.

India Stack provides the ability to operate in real time, transactions such as lending, bank or mobile account opening that usually can take few days to complete are now instant.

As you can see, Smart phones will act as key to access the kingdom.

This is fast, secure and reliable; this is the future...
This revolutionary digital infrastructure will soon be able to process billions more transactions than bitcoin ever has. It may well be a bitcoin killer or at best provide the framework for how blockchain technology could be applied in the real world. It is too early to tell whether other countries or the private sector adopts blockchain versions of this infrastructure or abandons it altogether and follows India’s centralised version.

India Stack is the largest open API in the world and will allow for massive fintech opportunities to be built around it. India is already the third largest fintech centre but it will jump into first place in a few years. India is already organizing hackathons to develop applications for the APIs.

It has left Silicon Valley in the dust.

Phase 6 – A Cash Ban

The final stroke of genius was the cash ban, which I have also discussed at length in the past. The cash ban is the final part of the story. It simply forces everyone into the new digital economy and has the hugely beneficial side-effect of reducing everyday corruption, recapitalising the banking sector and increasing government tax take, thus allowing India to rebuild its crumbling infrastructure...

India was a cash society but once the dust settles, cash will account for less than 40% of total transactions in the next five years. It may eliminate cash altogether in the next ten years.

The cash ban digitizes India. No other economy in the world is even close to this.

Phase 7 – The Investment Opportunity

Everyone thinks they know about the Indian economy – crappy infrastructure, corruption, bureaucracy and antiquated institutions but with a massively growing middle class. Well, that is the narrative and has been for the last 15 years.

But that phase is over and no one noticed. So few people in the investment community or even Silicon Valley are even vaguely aware of what has happened in India and that has created an enormous investment opportunity.

The future for India is massive technological advancement, a higher trend rate of GDP and more tax revenues. Tax revenues will fund infrastructure – ports, roads, rail and healthcare. Technology will increase agricultural productivity, online services and manufacturing productivity.

Telecom, banking, insurance and online retailing will boom, as will the tech sector.

Nothing in India will be the same again.

FDI is already exploding and will rise massively in the years ahead as technology giants and others pour into India to take advantage of the opportunity...

I think India is going to offer an entire world of opportunity going forwards.

If I can sum up, it’s in this one chart: the SENSEX in US Dollars. It looks explosive for the next 10 years...

By Raoul Pal
March 2017
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Dear all,

After reading this article, you will find that-

a)  India needs to manufacturer low cost ‘SWADWSHI’ smart phone which even beggar can afford. Anyone remembers what happened with ‘FREEDOM 250’? Please read my earlier mail appended below-

b)  Interestingly, AADHAR is still not becoming acceptable proof in India and Electricity bill is asked for address proofs

c)  Huge information about every person of India is gone/passed on to CIA and FBI of USA due to AADHAR database. Thanks to Mr. Nadan Nilakeni.

d)  Indians have not understood so much has been done in India. Does Indian Government knows all this?

Vishwas P Pitke

+91 9011092781

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---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Vishwas Pitke <vishwas.pitke@gmail.com>
Date: Sat, Feb 20, 2016 at 4:10 PM
Subject: **Freedom 251- Does it ring any bell?
To: vishwas pitke <vishwas.pitke@gmail.com>

Dear all,

Kapil Sibbal announced to provide computer in INR 10,000. No one saw it till date.

Kapil Sibbal also promised to provide Akash tablet at INR 2500. No one knows where it is.

Ratan Tata declared to sell INR 1,00,000 car. Instead sold same car at INR 2,50,000 to INR 3,00,000 using his first declaration as great advertisement tool to halt the market and kept it waiting for such INR 1,00,000/- incredibly priced car.

Freedom 251 seems to be exactly like that. In spite of huge scales of manufacturing economy this product can get, no one can reduce the predicated hardware cost of INR 2500/phone to INR 251/phone- unless someone is ready to loose heavily. At the most, current slow down in China may be the reason for getting cheap hardware as inventory clearance and/or distress sale to The Noida based Indian Company called Ringing Bell, but that does not mean so called Chinese suppliers are selling the hardware at INR 250.99 per mobile and allowing at least 1 Paisa profit earning potential for Ringing Bell.

I am not going to describe the details of phone and it's quality as whatever you will get at INR 251 will be worth it for that amount. The issue is, is it possible to get a smartphone at such an incredibly low cost and that too from a totally new company and family having NIL background of any business (except their ancestral grocery /kirana maal business)?

That means something is different and the real business will not be the sale of such Freedom 251 phone but something different.

Consider following 2 examples given by me below-

In Kalabadevi area of Mumbai, one new supplier approached all Kirana stores to sell Sugar on door delivery basis and that too at wholesale price. Normally, they all used to get it as truck loads in the form of 100 KG Jute bags from already established suppliers. Sugar being a commodity product, is having no margin for doing something creative to earn profits for any new suppliers. However this new supplier assured all the Kirana shops that he will come whenever they call him and will deliver and not only supply the sugar of retail quantity at same whole sale price (what they are getting from the wholesale market) but will even pour the sugar in empty storage cans of those suppliers. He did it and his sale started going where there was no chance for any new supplier. Any businessman will love to get retail product quantities at wholesale price. Customers were getting sugar at same wholesale price with an additional benefit of saving of 1 manual labor. Curiously, customers asked him that why is he doing it and how can he earn a profit and sustain in business? New supplier answered that he is earning nothing from sale of sugar. However, he earns money from the sale of empty jute bags at INR 5/bag and meeting his expenses having very low overhead costs. As the sale increases, number of empty jute bags available for sale also increases and his turnover increases. Though he was selling Sugar, his business was not to sell sugar but to sell the empty jute bags.

I also tell you one of my Favorited jokes (?) from my childhood. (In fact, it is great learning for we all). One so called smart and sharp Custom officer challenges one smuggler that if he can smuggle anything without getting caught by the customs officer, he will marry his daughter with that smuggler. Smuggler happily accepts the challenge. Next day smuggler carries a load of gunny bag full with sand and keeps it on bicycle carrier and goes to cross the border. Ready custom officer demands his search but found nothing in the gunny bag other than sand. This continues for 7 days. Then the custom officer demands the chemical analysis of the sand to check if that sand is containing some precious material or not. However he finds nothing. Another week goes. All of a sudden that custom officer realizes that he forgot to check the tubes and tires of the cycle and starts checking every day in side rubber tube, tires, hallow metal cavities, below the seat to find anything which can be smuggled. However he finds nothing controversial and hence everyday he had to allow the smuggler to pass the border with his load of gunny bag. Finally one month gets over and smuggler demands to get married with his daughter. Custom officer accepts and asked the smuggler to prove what exactly he was smuggling for entire month. Smuggler declares that he was smuggling one entire bicycle every day right in front of all in broad day light. The gunny bag was just for the distraction.

Keep this view whenever you come across any such interesting and incredible proposal.

Now the analysis-

1) Who the hell is this Goyal family and who is ready to offer them such a raw material at such a low cost which is not available even to the reputed ones with large credit lines as well as market goodwill and past performance history?

2) Goyal family had invested nothing in the manufacturing plant but expecting that INR 250 CR CAPEX is required for plant. Who is going to invest in it or who will give such money to Goyals?

The idea may be first to ensure the huge advance sell of mobile and collect as much money from the market as possible and show that to bank and/or Venture Capital (VC) investor to get loan or free investment. This is good strategy and perfectly acceptable. It seems that Goyals will invite venture capital providers because even if they lose in this business, VC will demand nothing from Goyals. Bank will not do that and hence Goyals will approach such VC business partner who is ready for such gamble.

3) the other possibility is the investment of Indian Black money through someone and may be through some foreign financier. After all, in coming days, heat will be on for all Swiss/foreign black money holders and this might be one such attempt to check if it can be converted into white money instead of losing it all or getting all of it confiscated by Indian government. In this case, we may expect more such incredible business proposals in near future. Watch those out and check and guess who might be behind this. The Mohit Goyal seems to be lacking any leadership quality by observing his so called shy presence and overall body language during launch of the Freedom 251. Interestingly, his wife Dhaarana was taking lead and showing her guts and seems that she is the real power behind this all issue. Interesting for first generation business family and that too by woman. What is her background OR is she backed by someone?

4) Ringing Bells is selling Freedom 251 via a special website called www.freedom251.com and says all deliveries will take 4 months to complete. Ringing Bells is charging Rs 40 extra for deliveries, so the total cost of the smartphone is Rs 291. The question is, why this was not given to Flipkart who are expert in handling such huge sell? My guess is that, Goyals are not all interested in any business of selling mobile but they are interested in starting e-commerce business like Flipkart which is easiest way of doing business. To get an entry into market, they have created a sensation with the help of Freedom 251 to attract huge consumers towards their own e-commerce platform. very soon, they will open that platform to all other companies to sell their own product as viewer-ship to Goyal's platform is incredibly high. This is there strategy to start e-commerce platform like Flipkart. In normal way, they could not have done this by beating established players like Amezon/Flipkart etc., and they played a this game of Freedom 251 to create sensation. Freedom 251 seems to be the gunny back distraction of the Goyals and their real bicycle is e-commerce platform business. This is what Ratan tata did by declaring Nano at INR 1,00,000 by attracting customers, halting them to wait till his new product arrives in the market, collected money in the form of advance booking and sold a car worth INR 3 lacs. Whereas, Maruti did for sale of MARUTI 800 for last many years without even playing such games.

5) At Noida, there is no factory of Ringing bell but just a board printed as 'BELL' (and not even 'Ringing Bell'). Does it ring any bell for you all? No plant, no machinery, no manpower but just empty shed.

6) No government has given a subsidy for such product as if they do it for one, they will have to do it for all.
7) Finally, consider following explanation also-

Launch of cheapest phone "freedom 251". See how the statistics is likely to work.

INR 291 per phone. (INR 251+INR 40 shipping) x 6L order per second = INR 17.46 Cr.

It was taking order till 12.15pm approx I.e 6 hrs and 15 min which is 22,500 seconds

INR 17.46 Cr per sec x 22,500 sec = INR 3,92,850 Cr

INR 3,88,494 Cr was turnover of Reliance industries in year 2014-15

That means within 6 hrs 15min they crossed turnover of Reliance

Within 6 second tax audit become applicable to that company

And even if without doing anything, if Goyals decides to deposit this money in any bank, we calculate interest on the said amount per day=

INR 3,92,850 Cr x 4% x 1/365 (by taking minimum interest rate) = INR 43.05 Cr/Day

And if after 4 months they will say we are unable to give product and refund INR 291 to everyone, INR 43.05 Cr/Day x 120 days approx = INR 5,166 Cr as they will earn within 4 months by way of interest.

Now you will say about their promotion cost. Deduct INR 50L/1 Cr/5 Cr or even 50 Cr, that will not make much difference to the figure. Amazing business idea. It is all Indian mind.

If Ratan Tata can do this, why can't Goyals?

Let this be genuine business proposal. Who knows how? No harm in waiting and watching and even purchasing. 

Who knows, Goyals may vanish in thin air with all this cash without even returning to any one anything. That is also possible.

After all loss of INR 251 for any individual is not great.

Vishwas P Pitke

+91 9011092781